Numbers Game

This is Part 2 of Covid-19: Sceptics Have Reasons.


We only think in extremes – Covid Compliant or Covid Denier. What many are trying to point out is that the virus is relatively less severe on its own (sickness and deaths vs incidence). Additionally, what is vital to put on display is how the people in charge can:

  • Exaggerate severity – with nonstop hysteria, fraudulent testing, misdiagnosis of disease, statistical malfeasance and misclassification of deaths.
  • Cause more death – from fear, stress, isolation – the ensuing mental illness and domestic issues; overdoses and suicides; loss of income; job losses; lack of exposure for the immune system, lack of activity, fresh air and sunshine; loss of routine healthcare and missed treatments.
  • Profit – there’s been a tremendous increase in the net worth of the people lobbying for extreme countermeasures; big gains for pharmaceutical and technology companies; and open transfers of foreclosed properties and businesses shut down to wealthier people.

Before you say “Covid death,” you have to be certain Covid is the cause. As insensitive as the questioning may appear, it is necessary at this point, where our collective reaction has long-term consequences.

We should ask: was the person sick? Was the person unhealthy? Was the person particularly old? How had the fear, stress, inactivity, poor diet, loss and lack of exposure affected that person? What was the primary and secondary cause of death? If someone had a heart attack or stroke and they previously tested positive, are they labelled as a Covid death?

Read the subtext

What is a Covid death? It appears, in many cases, you don’t even need a positive test – “probable” or “suspected” cases – based on very common symptoms – are counted. And the Covid datasets informing lockdowns are not available for public auditing:

The momentum behind this global fear campaign started when the WHO said that the CFR for Covid-19 was ~3.4% i.e. over 3 in 100 people would die. This was informed by very little data. A later study estimates the IFR – a better measure of mortality – to be “0.15 [to] 0.20% (0.03 [to] 0.04% in those <70 years).” Another says the median is 0.23% while mentioning that “[i]n people < 70 years, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.31% with crude and corrected medians of 0.05%.” The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has estimates ranging from 0.00003, for ages 0-19, to 0.054, for ages 70+.

Two numbers underscore this pandemic: cases and deaths. 

A case used to mean someone was sick; now it’s anyone the test says is infected with Sars-Cov-2 – even if they have no symptoms of a disease. The RT-PCR test itself – treated to a remarkably quick turnaround time for acceptance – is said to be prone to contamination. Or rendered medically meaningless at high cycle thresholds (Ct). Or by finding dead, partial or other viruses. Peer reviews of the testing standard were not accepted, even sabotaged. Petitions to drop the Ct were ignored – claimed to be the responsibility of private companies. All in all, a significant amount of cases appear to be found through misdiagnosis: via unreliable tests or on the basis of suspicion.

The World Health Organization (WHO) themselves have recently issued instructions to ensure more accurate case numbers, indirectly recognizing the problems with mass testing of symptomless people and high cycle thresholds.

The testing protocol was reviewed and criticized by many experts. The biggest issue is the high, unreported number of cycles:

And again:

Most countries report positive cases without the Ct value which is often 35+. Attempts to highlight and change this have been met with strong opposition, and sometimes blatant unprofessionalism, backed up by thin arguments.

Here are some highlights from an exposé on the PCR testing method:

And here, in The Lancet:

These are the tests that give us the cases that brought society to a screeching halt.

Likewise, deaths have been misclassified.

While I can’t validate the following stories, they are not so far-fetched:

Due to myopic hyper focus on a single disease – a condition being referred to as Covid Tunnel Vision (CVT) – people are having to wait on coronavirus tests for any treatment. No one appears to be getting sick of anything other than Covid. No one appears to be dying of anything other than Covid. Every death (while a tragedy) is a red alert.

Here’s an example: when Ramaphosa shared condolences regarding the passing of 83-year-old Jonas Gwangwa, every second comment mentioned the virus. Yet the virus was not the cause.

In the UK (1, 2), Canada and the US, moving elderly, at-risk people from hospitals to care homes – to create capacity for Covid-19 – resulted in significant death. The virus ran rampant in a vulnerable population, spiking the initial figures. Likewise, in the UK, among other countries, healthy people were encouraged to get tested. Most countries employing mass testing found “cases” amongst healthy people. Those cases are the numbers scaring people.

In South Africa, we’ve done up to 60 thousand tests a day, even swabbing dead people to find cases. In many of the hard-hit countries, such as the UK, anyone who died between 28 and 60 days after a positive test, for whatever reason, even if it was a car accident, was counted as a Covid death. There is a clear and deliberate shirking by parties tasked with objectively assessing the risk and severity of Sars-Cov-2. Calls for focused protection were ignored.

It seems that judging prevalence based on these “cases” has the potential to tremendously overstate impact.

By now, we know who is at risk. We should have protected those people.

In fact, you could argue, authorities have done the opposite – they’ve waged war on the 99%. They’ve also sustained a climate of fear where dissent and criticism are labelled conspiracy theory (ultimately, by those who profit from The New Normal and The Great Reset) or outright mocked. There has been ruthless censorship of even the most qualified. Expertly, corporate media appeals to our emotions to reinforce the fear-based narrative and claim the moral high ground; anyone who questions them is called, basically, selfish or stupid. Meanwhile, there’s evidence that parties in charge have altered how statistics are kept (1, 2), how infections are counted, how cases are reported and how deaths are classified – all in favor of painting a grimmer picture of Covid-19.

Image
Pro-business, US-aligned South Africa accounts for 42/60k deaths (WHO)

A lot more South Africans were infected than you think. The Daily Maverick reported: “Extrapolating their results to the whole population, the researchers estimated that 63% of people in Eastern Cape have been infected since the epidemic started, 32% in Northern Cape, 46% in Free State and 52% in KwaZulu-Natal.”

Previous infection is the best defense

Many people I know tested positive. Many of them suffering from chronic conditions such as cancer and diabetes. Almost all living an unhealthy lifestyle, especially now due to restrictions. Few were sick. Fortunately, all recovered. I’m saying that experience tells us that this is not a death sentence. Even in the worst cases, early treatment and healthy routines – not panic – gives a person the best chance of beating this (and any) disease. Even vaccines depend on your immune system; it is your only defense. There are tried and tested ways to support it. Fear and constant sanitizing undermines it.

Perhaps it is time to remind everyone that people die. Often from avoidable causes: the stress of their awful, obligatory jobs; debt; lack of proper healthcare; inability to sustain nutritious, balanced diets; treatable/curable diseases: TB, malaria, flu and pneumonia. We’ve also forgotten that ICUs run at 80-90 per cent capacity normally because they are expensive to run.

When someone we know tests positive – regardless of whether they are actually sick – we bury them under fear and woe, conditions that are unhealthy. We also ignore their medical history, preexisting conditions, poor diets, lack of exercise; the effects of lockdown, missing flu and pneumonia cases this year…

Image
No lockdowns in 2018
This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-22.png
Source: Statista
This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-1.png
Where is the Flu? Source: WHO
This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is 20210102_153232.jpg

Hard as it is to consider, especially if you’ve experienced genuine loss, the burden of Covid-19 is relatively small, and viruses are common – a significant percentage of the general population carry at least one. People pass with them all the time. Sad but true. The burden of flu and flu-like infections (including coronaviruses) is tremendous. I sympathize with anyone who has had people they know get seriously sick or pass on due to Covid-19, but, regardless of the subjective experience of some civilians, authorities have the responsibility to be objective, implementing measures that cause the least amount of upheaval, loss, misery and death.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is smartselect_20210116-050527_twitter.jpg

A closer look at the statistics, testing methodology, testing regime, classification of death and consequences of mitigation strategies may cause us to wonder if we grant this virus too much credit.

Source: worldometers

Almost all deaths happen within vulnerable populations: the elderly and/or those with serious, preexisting health conditions (1, 2, 3, 4). Children are relatively unharmed (1, 2, 3, 4). Many instances also highlight death caused by medical intervention (1, 2). Here’s the main point: yes, the disease has the potential to contribute to death – as is the case with all respiratory infections – but what the statistics tell us is that Covid-19 is not deadly enough to justify the hysteria and countermeasures, all of which guarantee misery and death.

Not a death sentence

People appear to be resuming life just fine. But the goalposts keep moving. When mortality and hospitalizations weren’t enough to keep the campaign going, they shifted to cases. Then waves of cases. Then variants of cases. Then waves of variants.

Prof of EBM, Director
@CebmOxford, NHS Urgent Care Doc & all things evidence

Proceed to The Lockdown Tragedy.

Make sentence here

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s